Monday, July 11, 2005

 

MoneyMoneyMoney...Mooooney

Well, we've got some initial reports for Council and Mayoral campaigns (Council number not yet available online, but should be available soon). The first reports are in, and here is what the race looks like for council:

Total Monetary Contributions:

Jeff Berding $150,740.00
John Cranley $135,297.00
Chris Monzel $94,234.00
David Crowley $92,419.00
Chris Bortz $83,050.00
Leslie Ghiz $75,663.00
Chris Smitherman $33,363.00
Sam Malone $23,805.00
Laketa Cole $21,155.56
Nick Spencer $15,414.00
Damon Lynch $9,914.00
Samantha Herd $8,420.00
Jim Tarbell $7,750.00
John Eby $7,375.00
Paul McGhee $5,500.00
Eve Bolton $4,145.00
Robert Wilking $4,000.00
Gerry Kraus $1,300.00
Wendell Young $1,548.20
Andrew Warner $1,005.35
Robert Wilson $955.00
Curtis Wells $763.34
Bill Barron $258.51
Cecil Thomas $250.00

So what does that mean? If you go straight by the numbers the top 9 get in. But that means Tarbell doesn't get re-elected. There is no way that happens. Let's look at incumbents that aren't running for Mayor (Tarbell, Cranley, Crowley, Malone, Cole, Smitherman, Monzel). Tarbell, Cranley, Crowley, Cole are in. Smitherman (made lots of enemies), Monzel (lost last time, and was appointed), and Malone (personal problems with son) are vulnerable. In my book that leaves 5 seats that are wide open. Here is my short list for who has the best spot at those seats: Berding, Monzel, Bortz, Ghiz, Smitherman, Malone, Spencer, Lynch. If I could pick the 5 it would be: Berding, Monzel, Bortz, Ghiz, Malone. That is based on one thing and one thing only. I think the other three, Smitherman, Spencer and Lynch like to see their name in the paper too much. They shoot for the dramatic instead of just getting stuff done, and we've had too much of that.

Quick comment on the Mayoral run as of June 29th here is how the campaigns shape up:

Justin Jeffre: $4,460
Mark Mallory: $33069
Alicia Reece: $57683
David Pepper: $437148

This says ALOT, since the max. contribution is $1,000 having $437,000 dollars at this point is amazing. I think it shows there is a lot of support behind his campaign. It also shows that Mallory and Reece have a LONG way to go in this campaign. I'll comment more later when the full council reports are available.

Comments:
Wow... really bummed that you picked Sam Malone over me. This is a guy who has an anti-police voting record on the Gang Unit, Club Ritz, and the 13th Street Barricade. Not to mention the fact that he beat up on his own son and his mom.

I'm comforted only by the fact that you live in Covington :)

Right now, I have us beating out Malone and all his baggage for the ninth and final seat. But there's a long way to go.

BTW, do I really try to get my name in the paper? With the exception of today, reporters call me for quotes-- I don't call them trying to get in stories. To me, there's a big difference.

I dunno...
 
One more thing: Jim's reporting is kinda interesting. I used the total contributions number, but if you use a different number, it goes all the way to 8th place past Sam Malone, bumping me to 11th.

Not that it matters. Jim could raise 50 bucks and he would still be a lock to get on Council. Everybody loves that guy.
 
I'm not sure I totally agree with your analysis of the mayor's race. Given the unique situation of the primary, money likely has very little to do with success. The people voting on September 13th are going to be the most committed, most informed voters and thus largely unswayed by ads and such. Plus, Pepper's money comes almost entirely from wealthy friends from his Yale days and his dad's connections at P&G. Those likely aren't the people who will be voting in the primary.

That said, I think Pepper will probably emerge from the primary still in the race along with Mallory, but I doubt money will have anything to do with that. Once we get into the general election, well, that's a different story.
 
I actually raised almost 2,000. That total you have is incorrect, and I hope that you didn't get that from the city. I had a total on there, but that was contributions minus expenses, so I think they made a mistake.
 
We should all remember the recent loss occured by Pat DeWine. Pepper with all his money doesn't really stand above the pack. It just shows he has rich friends, not the most friends...
 
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